By Kim Jae-kyoung
U.S. President Donald Trump's move to alter the 1953 Korean armistice agreement could provide a loophole for North Korea to dodge sanctions,
according to Tara O, an adjunct fellow at Pacific Forum.
She also believes the U.S. and South Korea's decision to halt its annual military exercises is "premature" because there are no signs the North will stop its own annual drills.
The New York-based American expert on North Korea said the talk of "ending the Armistice" is related to the talk of a "lasting and stable peace regime" mentioned in the Singapore agreement signed by the two leaders on June 12.
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| Tara O |
"This will have the effect of dismantling the U.N. Command Military Armistice Commission (UNCMAC), which supervises the Armistice Agreement, and the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC)," O said in an interview following the historic Trump-Kim summit.
The NNSC conducts investigations of violations of the Armistice.
"When vehicles, people and goods move through the demilitarized zone (DMZ), the UNCMAC must be notified.?If the UNCMAC ceases to exist, it would reduce its ability to monitor sanctions," he said.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Monday Trump agreed at the Singapore summit to "alter the Armistice Agreement" in exchange for North Korea's denuclearization.
Pompeo said Kim made very clear his commitment to complete denuclearization, and Trump, in return, has committed to making sure the U.S alters the Armistice Agreement and provides security assurances.
O, author of "Collapse of North Korea: Challenges, Planning and Geopolitics of Korean Unification," thinks the landmark agreement has tipped the balance of Washington-Pyongyang relations in favor of the latter.
"It appears Kim got everything he wanted.?The optics of meeting Trump?with the flags of both countries in the background was exactly the image he wanted _ that North Korea is equal to the United States," she said.
"It also got in writing that the U.S. guarantees the North Korean regime."
She took issue with the Singapore statement reaffirming the Panmunjeom Declaration, which has numerous points other than the denuclearization not of North Korea, but of the Korean Peninsula.
"Only North Korea has nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula, so it's easy to assume it means North Korea," she said.
In her view, using the term "Korean Peninsula" is the North's strategy to put the focus on South Korea.
In other words, since South Korea doesn't have nuclear weapons, North Korea is referring to the U.S. _ its nuclear umbrella and military capability applied to the peninsula.
Headlong decision
O believes the U.S. and South Korea's joint move to end their joint military drills is reckless.
"This is exactly what North Korea has been demanding," she said.
She explained the U.S. troops are there to defend South Korea against North Korea's threat, which includes 70 percent of North Korea's military forward deployed near the DMZ, chemical and biological weapons, the largest special operations forces in the world and cyberwarfare.
"There has been no indication any of these threats are going away.?So unless North Korea reduces its overall threats, discussing the U.S. troop withdrawal is premature," she said.
On Tuesday, Seoul and Washington decided to suspend the Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) exercise slated for August.
O found one positive thing from the Singapore summit _ recovery of the remains of prisoners of war (POW) and missing in action (MIA) who died in North Korea.
"The recovery of POWs and MIAs is a positive outcome, and hopefully this issue would extend to the ROK POWs who are still alive as well," she said.
Under the joint statement, the two leaders affirmed their commitment to recovering the remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.
