Pyongyang likely to be Putin’s 1st destination after May inauguration: experts

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, shakes hands with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui in Moscow, Tuesday (local time). Reuters-Yonhap

Dispatch of NK workers, Trump’s possible return to power expected to be on Kim-Putin summit agendaBy Jung Min-ho

As Russian President Vladimir Putin cordially greeted North Korea’s top diplomat in Moscow on Tuesday (local time), a Kremlin spokesman confirmed that the Russian leader will visit Pyongyang “at a convenient time.”

Speaking to The Korea Times on Wednesday, international relations experts said the North Korean capital will likely be the autocrat’s first overseas destination after his all-but-certain election victory and inauguration on May 7 as part of his effort to strengthen diplomatic and military ties with the North amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.

They added Putin might fly there even before the election (March 15-17) as the move would not affect his popularity at home where he enjoys stable approval ratings that surpass 80 percent.

“Most likely, Putin would be there after the inauguration as he begins his fifth term in office to highlight Russia’s ties with North Korea and to maximize its diplomatic effect,” said Hyun Seung-soo, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank. “China would be another top destination for him. My guess is that he would visit Pyongyang first and then head to Beijing where he may talk about North Korea issues with Chinese President Xi Jinping.”

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That would be Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang since July 2000, when he engaged in talks with Kim Jong-il, the late father of current leader Kim Jong-un.

Evidence shows Russia’s military has been using North Korean arms including missiles in its war in Ukraine. Giving the Kremlin’s diplomatic support to Pyongyang would be one of the most symbolic and cost-effective options for repayment, Cho Han-bum, another Russia expert at the think tank, said.

"North Korean ammunition supplied to Russian troops has played a crucial role in the ongoing war. Given the Kremlin's reluctance to fulfill North Korea's requests, such as providing technology for advanced weapons, due to international sanctions and its own national interests, holding a summit in Pyongyang could serve as a reciprocal gesture to North Korea without incurring high costs," Cho said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, right, walks with his North Korean counterpart Choe Son-hui in Moscow, Tuesday (local time). AFP-Yonhap

During her visit to Moscow, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui hailed the progress made in implementing agreements reached last September between Kim and Putin, although she did not go into details.

When questioned about the possible agenda items in her meeting with Putin and her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, experts suggested that key issues likely included the dispatch of North Korean workers to Russia, North Korea's potential for further arms support, and the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House.

“At that meeting, North Korea’s possible participation in rebuilding Ukraine’s eastern region under Russian control was possibly addressed as one of the main issues. Already, data suggests that a growing number of North Koreans have recently entered Russia probably on fake visas to fill Russia’s labor void amid the war,” Hyun said. “If Russia’s military manages to stabilize its control over the region, which I believe is not impossible this year, Russia will try to expand that collaboration to recruit workers it lacks.”

Another issue that unites the two countries is their shared hostility toward the current U.S.-centric world order. Experts said both North Korea and Russia clearly prefer Trump’s win in the Nov. 5 election as they are keen to change the status quo sustained under President Joe Biden. These topics may have been discussed during Choe's meetings with Putin and Lavrov, and if the expected summit in Pyongyang takes place, they are likely to be once again among the key subjects at the talks between Putin and Kim, the experts added.

On Monday, Trump secured a sweeping victory in the Iowa caucuses as surveys show he will highly likely win the Republican nomination. Meanwhile, recent polls show Biden’s approval ratings hovering at record-low levels.