North Korea may surprise world with big nuclear moves

North Koreans celebrate the New Year at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, Dec. 31, 2023, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Speaking to The Korea Times recently, experts said this year will likely remain tense for the Korean Peninsula as Pyongyang is expected to redouble efforts for a military buildup after officially abandoning its efforts for peace through talks. Yonhap

Tense year lies ahead as Pyongyang redoubles efforts to build up arms

Editor’s note

This article is the first in a four-part series that provides an analysis of South Korea’s diplomatic situation with neighboring countries at the start of 2024. ― ED.

By Jung Min-ho

Pyongyang has left little room for second-guessing about what inter-Korean relations would be like this year. During a year-end ruling Workers’ Party meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for “overwhelming” war readiness against South Korea and the U.S.

As a means of building such military forces, he then told officials to redouble their efforts for “five top-priority tasks” for the year ahead. Among the plans are producing “supersized” nuclear warheads and developing submarines capable of launching an underwater nuclear attack.

All this suggests that North Korea might be preparing for its first nuclear weapons test since 2017, according to experts contacted recently by The Korea Times. With the North officially abandoning its peace efforts, the big question now is how much tension would rise on the peninsula rather than whether there would be any turnaround, they said.

“Among the top priorities, the ‘supersized’ nuclear warhead is the only weapon that has not been revealed. After his announcement, North Korea may move to test it before unveiling it to the world,” said Cha Du-hyeogn, a senior analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a think tank.

North Korea’s latest nuclear test was estimated to have a yield of up to 100 kilotons, which is five times stronger than the atomic bomb detonated over the Japanese city of Nagasaki in 1945. Cha fears the new bomb under development — likely a thermonuclear type — would be far more powerful.

Experts said if Pyongyang ever decides to carry out another nuclear test in spite of apparent opposition from Beijing, the purpose would be to demonstrate its nuclear strike capability in a real-war situation.

“It is important to keep in mind that North Korea is doing all this to pressure U.S. politicians to recognize it as a significant threat they should deal with,” said Kim Jin-ha, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), a state-funded think tank.

“To convince them, North Korea could test its tactical nuclear weapon or test-launch its intercontinental ballistic missile at a normal angle (instead of a high angle) to demonstrate its ability to strike the U.S. mainland.”

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Kim said one possible scenario for North Korea is to test-fire its Haeil-1 and Haeil-2 underwater drones, which he said are “capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.” They were believed to be inspired by the Poseidon, a Russian unmanned underwater vehicle equipped with a nuclear propulsion system and nuclear warhead.

Cheong Seong-chang of the Sejong Institute, a think tank, is another scholar who thinks that North Korea may well test the Hwasan-31, its nuclear warhead disclosed for the first time last March, in the coming weeks ― possibly on the occasion of Kim Jong-un’s 40th birthday on Jan. 8, or his deceased father’s on Feb. 16.

In his announcement, the North Korean leader set forth plans to launch three additional spy satellites in 2024 after the successful launch of its first in November.

He said it would be critical to establish a “reliable foundation” to build more nuclear weapons amid signs that it started operating a new light-water reactor at its main nuclear facility in Yongbyon. He also told officials to enhance submarine capabilities as his navy is trying to turn dozens of its mid-sized submarines into “tactical nuclear attack submarines.”

Experts have expressed concerns that all such efforts could be aided by its strong ties to the Kremlin, which is using North Korean ammunition for its war against Ukraine in exchange for the promises of its technical support for the regime. They also worry that this Cold War-like climate would deepen the division of the two Koreas even further.

What is suspected to be a Haeil "nuclear-armed" unmanned underwater vehicle is revealed during a military parade at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, July 27, 2023, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap

‘Highly calculated provocations expected’

Despite its belligerent rhetoric, experts believe North Korea will largely avoid making blatant provocations in fear of retaliation from the Seoul-Washington combined forces.

The most likely scenario is that North Korea would plan something similar to its 2015 attack, in which two South Korean soldiers were seriously injured by a landmine in the demilitarized zone apparently planted in secret by the North Korean military, they said.

“For its political and diplomatic objectives, North Korea would want to stir up tensions. But I think it is unlikely to make big-scale provocations like its attack on South Korea's Cheonan frigate,” Cha said. “The risk of possible consequences is too great. Most likely, it would aim for something that could have a major political impact without causing many deaths.”

With critical elections scheduled for this year — in Taiwan, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. — North Korea will explore the best timing for its provocations while amplifying efforts to develop new weapons to increase its bargaining power in any future negotiations with a possibly new U.S. president — maybe Donald Trump — after its election in November, said experts. They added that the regime ultimately wants a nuclear disarmament deal with Washington.

According to Kim Jin-ha, North Korea’s attempt to align itself with Russia and China is another recent pattern that deserves extra attention.

“Instead of acting alone, North Korea has recently shown a tendency of acting in accordance with the messages from Russia and China, which appear to view it more importantly in their geopolitical strategies against the U.S.,” the KINU analyst said. “After Taiwan’s presidential election (scheduled for Jan. 13), North Korea is expected to watch closely how China reacts to the results.”