Cuba's alignment with Seoul could be Kim Jong

A man walks in front of a photo of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel, left, together with Raul Castro in Havana, Cuba, in this April 19, 2023 file photo. Cuba, a socialist country North Korea considers as one of its most trusted allies, announced on Wednesday that it restored diplomatic relations with South Korea after 65 years, which some experts here described as a “shocking decision” to Pyongyang. EPA-Yonhap

North Korea’s longtime ‘comrade and role model’ forges diplomatic ties with South KoreaBy Jung Min-ho

Cuba, a socialist country regarded by North Korea as one of its most trusted allies, made an unexpected announcement on Wednesday that it restored diplomatic relations with South Korea after 65 years, a move that some experts described as "a shocking decision" for Pyongyang.

Representatives from Seoul and Havana met in New York to sign an agreement to establish formal diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level, marking a significant step after ties were severed in 1959.

Experts told The Korea Times on Thursday that the diplomatic shift of the Caribbean island nation, given its historical ties with North Korea and special status as an "anti-U.S. role model," would likely have a considerable impact on Pyongyang's ruling elite.

“The decision by Cuba is the biggest diplomatic failure since Kim Jong-un took power (in late 2011),” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, a think tank.

“North Korean leaders must have felt shocked and betrayed. They probably didn’t see it coming. North Korea will likely remain silent over the issue. There is also a possibility that some diplomats will face punitive measures.”

Cuba initially established diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1949, prior to the Korean War (1950-53). However, those ties were severed after Fidel Castro came to power through a revolution in 1959. Subsequently, in 1960, Cuba established diplomatic relations with fellow communist ally North Korea. Since then, the two countries have maintained a brotherly relationship based on shared ideology and hostility toward the U.S.

Cuba has consistently been regarded as one of the most steadfast allies of North Korea, if not the most consistent. Their ties have remained stable even during significant geopolitical shifts, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union and South Korea's establishment of diplomatic relations with former members of the communist bloc, according to experts.

“All this makes the Cuban decision more surprising and difficult to swallow for North Korea,” said Chung Sung-yoon, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank.

“For North Korea, Cuba has acted as a role model that preserved its own political and economic systems despite U.S. sanctions imposed on the country for many decades. That Cuba somehow decided to adopt a practical diplomatic stance — probably for economic reasons — would send a message to North Korea.”

Additionally, what’s alarming about the diplomatic news for North Korea is that South Korea was able to achieve it probably with Washington’s tacit collaboration, he said.

“That might have reminded North Korea of South Korea’s Northern Policy (the foreign policy in the late 80s to reach out to the traditional allies of the North). After watching the Cuban decision, North Korean leaders could be concerned about the power of South Korea and the U.S.’ diplomacy at a time when it is trying hard to strengthen relations with certain partner countries such as Russia and China despite financial problems.”

Photos of former North Korean and Cuban leaders are hung at the Cuban Embassy in Pyongyang in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Aug. 15, 2023. They are photos of, from left, North Korea's late founder Kim Il-sung, late leader Kim Jong-il and late Cuban leader Fidel Castro and his brother Raul Castro. Yonhap

North Korea’s state media frequently covers positive news and views about Cuba. Thanks to such reports, many ordinary North Koreans have a positive image of the country. After the death of former Cuban leader Fidel Castro in 2016, Kim called him a “comrade-in-arms” and visited the Cuban Embassy in Pyongyang to pay his respects.

South Korea has been working to restore diplomatic ties with Cuba for many years. In 2016, former Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se expressed Seoul’s intention to forge diplomatic ties with the country during his official trip there.

Over the past two years under the Yoon Suk Yeol administration, diplomats have stepped up such efforts, expanding exchanges both in the public and private sectors, a high-ranking government official said.

“Considerable political damage to North Korea would be inevitable,” the official said.

South Korea’s growing international status as an economic and cultural powerhouse helped make the diplomatic accomplishment possible, the official said. The growing popularity of its cultural content such as K-pop in Cuba helped improve the image of South Korea, the official added.

With the establishment of official ties, exchanges in tourism and other areas between Seoul and Havana are expected to increase in the coming years. However, as Cuba remains a “state sponsor of terrorism” under Washington’s watch list, tourists who have visited the country could face hurdles if they enter the U.S. or some other countries.