NK likely to continue provocations for greater leverage before elections

South Korean military conducts a live-fire drill on Baengnyeong Island, Friday, in response to North Korea's artillery firing. Courtesy of Ministry of National Defense

Possible provocations include spy satellite launch, submarine-launched missile testsBy Nam Hyun-woo

North Korea, who has been ratcheting up tensions with a series of live-fire drills near the maritime border, is expected to stage various types of provocations throughout this year in an apparent bid to maximize its leverage before major elections in Seoul and Washington, according to diplomatic observers, Monday.

According to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), the North has fired approximately 350 rounds into the waters of the West Sea during the three-day provocations dating back to Friday. Of the rounds, some fell into waters as close as seven kilometers north of the Northern Limit Line, a maritime buffer zone between the two Koreas.

This appears to be the North’s first firing of artillery into the West Sea since South and North Korea signed an inter-Korean military agreement in 2018, whose articles prohibit any hostile activities, including military drills, near the border area. The North, in November, threatened to scrap the military pact and restored military assets, such as guard posts and heavy arms, in the border area.

The latest round of incitement came less than 100 days before South Korea is to hold its general elections on April 10 to elect lawmakers and 10 months before the U.S. presidential election. Given this context, experts say that the North is seeking to gain political leverage through the provocations so that it can have the upper hand in possible talks or confrontations with the incoming powers.

“Rather than having a direct influence on the general elections, the North appears to be seeking conflicts within South Korea and heightened tensions through the provocations so that it can improve its leverage in inter-Korean relations,” said Go Myong-hyun, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

Until the late 1990s, South Korean politics had concerns over the so-called "North Wind," which is a term referring to Seoul’s conservatives using Pyongyang’s provocations before major elections to affect the sense of security that South Korean people felt, thus persuading them to choose a conservative candidate.

Experts said the current situation is far from that, given that the Pyongyang regime detests the conservative Yoon Suk Yeol administration, nor is seeking talks with the liberal opposition. Rather, the North declared that unification was “impossible,” defining the South as “a hostile nation.”

“These days, the North seems to like neither South Korea’s ruling conservative party nor the liberal main opposition party,” Go said.

Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, also said that the North’s provocations are not an attempt to directly affect the South Korean general elections, but aimed at increasing its leverage in relation to new powers after the elections.

“The North claims that it was responding to the South Korean military’s live-fire drill on the first day, detonating explosives on the second day to deceive the South and conducting a planned military drill on the third day,” said Yang.

“If the North’s explanation is correct, it will be hard to say that the North is staging the provocations to manipulate Seoul’s general elections.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sits at a transporter erector launcher for the Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental missile in this image captured from the North's Korean Central Television, Friday. Yonhap

On Friday when the North fired approximately 200 shells, its official Korean Central News Agency said the firing was “a response measure to the South’s military actions.” It was referring to the South Korean Army’s Jan. 2 live-fire drill.

Regarding the display of power on Saturday, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, claimed that the North conducted a “deceptive operation" by detonating explosives simulating the sound of artillery shells. A day later, the North fired more than 90 rounds of artillery shells and claimed it was “a normal naval drill.”

Experts echoed that the North will continue to stage additional provocations and improve its military capacities to enhance its leverage before the South Korean general elections and U.S. presidential elections in November.

“The North has already said that it will launch three more military reconnaissance satellites this year,” Yang said.

“Also possible are testing submarine launched ballistic missiles or launching the Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile at a normal angle, not at a lofted angle. With the possibility of the former U.S. President being re-elected, the North will step up its military programs to secure its best leverage to the United States.”

A second Trump presidency is widely expected to bring an overall shift concerning the U.S. approach to the North’s nuclear programs. Last month, U.S. media outlet Politico reported that Trump is considering a plan to let North Korea keep its nuclear weapons and offer its regime financial incentives to stop making new bombs.

Go also noted that the North will step up provocations at least before the U.S. presidential election in order to prepare the negotiation table with the U.S.