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联系方式 What is behind NK's ICBM tests?
2024-06-01 17:23:08 点击：348
Pyonyang seeks to estrange South Korea from US
By Kim Jae-kyoung
President Moon Jae-in must be anxious about North Korea's military provocations following his dialogue offer to defuse tension and reach a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
The North is yet to respond officially to Moon's outreach. It has said through the Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpiece of the ruling Workers' Party, that halting "anti-North Korean confrontations and hostile practices" is a prerequisite for improving inter-Korean relations.
The proposal for talks came shortly after Pyongyang succeeded in its first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that it said was capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
Moon expressed his wish to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at any time. But instead of accepting talks with Moon, Kim carried out a second test of an ICBM, and is preparing to conduct another nuclear test.
What is North Korea's true intention of testing ICBMs while the South is offering peace gestures? What is behind the North's silence to the offer of talks?
Experts said the immediate purpose of Pyongyang's actions is to estrange South Korea from the U.S. and to have talks directly with Washington.
"North Korea's objective in launching ICBMs, as best we can ever understand what Pyongyang is thinking, is to separate the U.S. from South Korea," New York-based political analyst and Asia specialist Sean King told The Korea Times.
"In other words, to scare the U.S. enough that we'll enter into direct peace treaty talks with Pyongyang, thereby undermining our South Korean ally."
In mid-July, Seoul proposed separate talks on easing border tension and arranging reunions of families separated by the Korean War in a bid to engage the isolated country.
Despite Moon's repeated dialogue overtures, Pyongyang launched its second ICBM, July 28, an indication that the Kim regime has no intention of having talks with the Moon administration.
Even worse is that North Korea is likely to conduct another ICBM test and its sixth nuclear test anytime soon, according to the Ministry of National Defense.
"North Korea's intention is to quickly develop a nuclear capable ICBM and use that as leverage to get U.S. forces off the peninsula and break the U.S.-South Korea alliance," said Tara O, adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS.
"The ultimate goal is to unify the Korean Peninsula under its own rule. Kim also wants to demonstrate technical prowess through developing nuclear weapons to bolster his legitimacy domestically."
Against this backdrop, it is crucial for Moon and his administration to understand what objective Pyongyang has and come up with a North Korea strategy accordingly.
What Pyongyang aims to do ultimately is to ensure the security of its regime and prove its military prowess through its nuclear capabilities.
"North Korea's intention (for ICBM launches) is to acquire what it believes is the only sufficient deterrent against the U.S.," said Balbina Hwang, a visiting professor at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies.
"It also believes that nuclear weapons and their delivery systems not only ensure its security, but makes it relatively more powerful than South Korea."
Analysts said that North Korea is now at the most dangerous point in its entire 40-year nuclear weapons program, having asserted a willingness to attack the U.S. with nuclear weapons without actually having the capability yet.
"Many in Pyongyang probably wonder why we (the U.S.) don't finish them off before it is too late," said William Brown, adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service.
"So they are in a mad rush to finish the job so they can stand back and feel safe with an ability to fight back should the U.S. or South Korea attack them."
By Kim Jae-kyoung
President Moon Jae-in must be anxious about North Korea's military provocations following his dialogue offer to defuse tension and reach a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
The North is yet to respond officially to Moon's outreach. It has said through the Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpiece of the ruling Workers' Party, that halting "anti-North Korean confrontations and hostile practices" is a prerequisite for improving inter-Korean relations.
The proposal for talks came shortly after Pyongyang succeeded in its first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that it said was capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
Moon expressed his wish to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at any time. But instead of accepting talks with Moon, Kim carried out a second test of an ICBM, and is preparing to conduct another nuclear test.
What is North Korea's true intention of testing ICBMs while the South is offering peace gestures? What is behind the North's silence to the offer of talks?
Experts said the immediate purpose of Pyongyang's actions is to estrange South Korea from the U.S. and to have talks directly with Washington.
"North Korea's objective in launching ICBMs, as best we can ever understand what Pyongyang is thinking, is to separate the U.S. from South Korea," New York-based political analyst and Asia specialist Sean King told The Korea Times.
"In other words, to scare the U.S. enough that we'll enter into direct peace treaty talks with Pyongyang, thereby undermining our South Korean ally."
In mid-July, Seoul proposed separate talks on easing border tension and arranging reunions of families separated by the Korean War in a bid to engage the isolated country.
Despite Moon's repeated dialogue overtures, Pyongyang launched its second ICBM, July 28, an indication that the Kim regime has no intention of having talks with the Moon administration.
Even worse is that North Korea is likely to conduct another ICBM test and its sixth nuclear test anytime soon, according to the Ministry of National Defense.
"North Korea's intention is to quickly develop a nuclear capable ICBM and use that as leverage to get U.S. forces off the peninsula and break the U.S.-South Korea alliance," said Tara O, adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS.
"The ultimate goal is to unify the Korean Peninsula under its own rule. Kim also wants to demonstrate technical prowess through developing nuclear weapons to bolster his legitimacy domestically."
Against this backdrop, it is crucial for Moon and his administration to understand what objective Pyongyang has and come up with a North Korea strategy accordingly.
What Pyongyang aims to do ultimately is to ensure the security of its regime and prove its military prowess through its nuclear capabilities.
"North Korea's intention (for ICBM launches) is to acquire what it believes is the only sufficient deterrent against the U.S.," said Balbina Hwang, a visiting professor at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies.
"It also believes that nuclear weapons and their delivery systems not only ensure its security, but makes it relatively more powerful than South Korea."
Analysts said that North Korea is now at the most dangerous point in its entire 40-year nuclear weapons program, having asserted a willingness to attack the U.S. with nuclear weapons without actually having the capability yet.
"Many in Pyongyang probably wonder why we (the U.S.) don't finish them off before it is too late," said William Brown, adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service.
"So they are in a mad rush to finish the job so they can stand back and feel safe with an ability to fight back should the U.S. or South Korea attack them."