Defense chief says NK may supply tactical guided missiles to Russia

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik speaks during an interview with Yonhap News Agency at his office in Seoul on Jan. 10. Yonhap

North Korea may sell new types of tactical guided missiles to Russia in addition to its alleged supply of short-range ballistic missiles for Moscow's use in its ongoing war with Ukraine, South Korea's defense chief has said.

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik also said North Korea could test-fire solid-fuel intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) as early as this month and may launch a long-range missile at normal angles to escalate already-high tensions ahead of key elections in South Korea and the United States.

In an exclusive interview with Yonhap News Agency on Wednesday, Shin said the weapons system unveiled by North Korean state media during leader Kim Jong-un's visit to a munitions factory earlier this week appears to be close-range ballistic missiles (CRBMs) capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons.

"North Korea first test-fired a close-range ballistic missile in April 2022. It is a new type of weapon with an estimated range of 100-180 kilometers," Shin said.

The defense ministry evaluated the North Korean missiles atop mobile launchers as being CRBMs, which are about 5 meters long with a firing range below 300 km.

Shin suggested that Kim's recent visit to munitions factories could be linked to North Korea's alleged arms supply to Russia as the two countries have been strengthening their military cooperation.

"North Korea said it will deploy (CRBMs) with front-line troops. Given the recent arms trade, (I think) North Korea could sell them to Russia," Shin said, citing the North's suspected sales of KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia.

The White House has recently declassified intelligence showing that North Korea had provided Russia with ballistic missile launchers and several ballistic missiles with ranges of 900 km.

North Korea is estimated to have provided around 5,000 containers of weapons to Russia as of the end of December, which can accommodate some 2.3 million rounds of 152 millimeter shells or some 400,000 rounds of 122 mm artillery shells, according to the minister.

Shin expressed concerns over Russia's suspected provision of technological assistance for North Korea's weapons program in return for the arms trade, including Pyongyang's spy satellite.

North Korea successfully placed its first military spy satellite into orbit in November and vowed to launch three more this year.

"North Korea's spy satellite launched in November is considered rudimentary. If Russia continues to offer technological assistance, the satellite's capability is expected to improve," Shin said.

The minister said North Korea is likely to stage various forms of provocations ahead of South Korea's parliamentary elections in April and the U.S. presidential election in November for its strategic interests.

Shin said Pyongyang has been preparing to test-fire a new type of IRBM following its two solid-fuel engine tests in November, weighing the possibility of its launch as early as this month.

Seoul officials believe Pyongyang's solid-fuel IRBM under development, harder to detect due to shorter preparation time, could potentially target U.S. military bases in Japan and Guam.

Shin also speculated the North could launch intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at normal angles to test their atmospheric reentry technology and precision strike capability.

Last year, the North launched five ICBMs, including three solid-fuel Hwasong-18s, which were launched at lofted angles and flew around 1,000 km.

Experts believe that if fired on a normal trajectory, these ICBMs could reach distances of 12,000-15,000 km, demonstrating a capability to hit the U.S. mainland.

"As all of the ICBMs were launched at lofted angles, the reliability of their reentry technology and precision strike capabilities have not yet been verified. This year, there is a possibility of (ICBM) launches with the real range and at normal angles," he said.

Meanwhile, Shin said buffer zones created under a 2018 inter-Korean military agreement "no longer exist" due to North Korea's latest artillery firings near the tense western sea border, vowing to resume "defensive" drills near the border to bolster readiness.

North Korea fired about 350 rounds of artillery shells near the western maritime border between Friday and Monday, prompting the South Korean military to stage live-fire drills in response.

Tensions along the border have escalated as the North has been restoring some of its destroyed guard posts inside the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) with concrete structures since last month.

A photo released by the official North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un watching the transportation of a Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for launch, at an undisclosed location in North Korea, Dec. 18, 2023. EPA-Yonhap

As part of the 2018 deal signed under the previous liberal President Moon Jae-in, the two Koreas demolished 10 guard posts each inside the DMZ and disarmed an additional one each, leaving the North with some 150 guard posts and South Korea with 67 of them.

While South Korea completely destroyed its guard posts at the time, Shin said the North is believed to have left underground facilities intact considering that soldiers and equipment were deployed soon after it restored the ground facilities.

"It seems that North Korea has only destroyed the guard posts visible from above, leaving the rest of the underground facilities untouched. It appears that the guard posts can be easily repaired and accessed once the repairs are made," he said, noting the South Korean military has also been preparing to restore its guard posts.

Shin said the North could also conduct a seventh nuclear test to make "smaller, lighter" nuclear weapons, adding its Punggye-ri testing site is ready to conduct a nuclear test at "any time."

"But the timing is hard to predict because it depends on North Korea's leadership. It may consider the optimal timing to exert influence, taking into account the elections in South Korea and the U.S.," he said.

Shin stressed North Korea's status as a nuclear state is neither acceptable nor should be acknowledged, warning its continued pursuit of nuclear weapons and missiles would only bring in tougher international sanctions.

"Nuclear development is not 'the sword of omnipotence' but 'a poisoned chalice' to Kim Jong-un and he should be aware of it," he said. (Yonhap)