Experts say Putin will likely visit Pyongyang this year

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un examine a Soyuz rocket launch pad during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky in the Russian Far East's Amur region, Sept. 13. Experts said on Tuesday that Putin will likely visit Pyongyang soon, possibly this year. AP-Yonhap

Russian FM to arrive in North Korea amid suspicion of arms transfersBy Jung Min-ho

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will arrive in North Korea today for a two-day visit, amid suspicions of arms transfers between the two states and palpable signs of their expanding bilateral ties.

Experts on Moscow-Pyongyang relations told The Korea Times on Tuesday that they believe the chief purpose of Lavrov’s visit is to arrange a more significant diplomatic event ― Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first official visit to the North Korean capital in more than 20 years.

“Lavrov is there to organize Putin’s summit with Kim Jong-un. I cannot think of any other reason,” said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute of National Unification, a state-run think tank. “It is now a question of when. Their next summit will likely take place this year.”

Hyun Seung-soo, another analyst at the think tank, agreed with the assessment.

Given the Kremlin’s desperate situation in Ukraine, where its troops are struggling with a chronic shortage of ammunition on the battlefield, Putin is expected to visit North Korea sooner rather than later as he is seeking more arms support from North Korea, Hyun said.

If the meeting takes place, it will be Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang since July 2000, when he engaged in talks with Kim Jong-il, the former leader of North Korea.

The latest development in the relationship comes after the Washington Post reported that two Russian ships made at least five round trips between a port facility in Dunay of the Russian Far East and North Korea's northeastern port of Rajin since mid-August ― a sign of possible arms transfers. This followed the White House’s announcement, Friday, that Pyongyang delivered more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions to Moscow for its ongoing war in Ukraine.

According to the news report, the highly suspected transfers began about three weeks after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited North Korea, where he held a meeting with Kim to discuss strengthening military cooperation.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with reporters in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Oct. 12, the day before a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States held there, in this handout picture released by the Russian foreign ministry. AFP-Yonhap

It is still unclear what North Korea gained ― or will gain ― from Russia in return. There have been worries that the Kremlin may offer sensitive military technologies to Pyongyang, which is trying to develop nuclear-powered submarines and spy satellites among other high-tech weapons systems.

Asked about that possibility, analysts said Russia’s lack of trust in the North and geopolitical restrictions will likely stand as an obstacle.

“In desperation, Russia might have offered North Korea cooperation in technological areas. In the long run, however, there are few benefits Russia can expect from that partnership other than ammunition and manpower,” Cho said. “So Russia may provide support in some areas, but it will stay reluctant to share its core technologies while projecting an image suggesting otherwise. I think the summit is part of that effort.”

In Russia, there has been a political discourse regarding how closely Russia should collaborate with North Korea, as almost all such attempts would violate international sanctions, according to Hyun, who added that the Kremlin knows the high diplomatic cost attached to the ties.

Speaking of the Russian foreign minister’s visit to North Korea, an official at the South's Ministry of Unification told reporters that the two countries should stop violating international laws.

“Amid the illegal arms transfers between Russia and North Korea, which were confirmed by the U.S. government, the international community is now closely monitoring the Russian foreign minister’s visit,” the official said.